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Here is the latest on Invest 99L. A little good news. The system has become less organized and the chances of development have slightly decreased. We are not out of the woods yet though. The NHC states that they are expecting some strengthening once it enters the Gulf but they have no idea how strong. In addition, the computer models are now in more disagreement as to the actual track. We will have to wait and see. The summary is below.
• An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave, designated Invest 99L, continues to become more disorganized with its showers and storms displaced well away from its apparent low pressure center.
• It is currently moving west between 15 and 20 mph through the southeastern Bahamas.
• As of 2pm EDT, 99L now has a 40% (medium) chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 70% (high) chance of development over the next five days, a slight decrease since this morning.
• Dry air and wind shear in its path continue to inhibit any potential development in the near term. However, 99L is expected to move into a more favorable environment this weekend as it nears the southwestern Bahamas, South Florida, and the southeast Gulf of Mexico.
• As 99L has become less organized throughout the day, computer models are beginning to disagree again on its future track. Possibilities currently range from near westerly tracks across Cuba and into the south central Gulf of Mexico to northwesterly tracks through the eastern Gulf and toward the central to eastern U.S. Gulf Coast.
• Computer models are still in some disagreement on 99L’s future intensity, but most models forecast 99L to become a tropical storm within the next three to five days.
• Note that computer models tend to struggle with weak tropical systems such as this one.
• Also, computer models have lacked general consistency with 99L from day to day this week concerning intensity and track. Things could change quickly as it moves into more favorable conditions this weekend.
• At this point it is too early to tell what the impacts will be to Florida or the U.S. from Invest 99L. There are many factors that make this a very complicated forecast, and conditions are in flux and likely to change going forward, but 99L does pose a probable threat to Florida.
• Potential impacts for the Panhandle and Big Bend are dependent on 99L’s track and strength. Currently, there is low confidence in any specific impacts.
• However, if 99L intensifies while in the Gulf of Mexico, rip currents and other coastal hazards could occur next week.
• WCEM is working closely with the Supervisor of Elections to determine what, if any, impacts there could be to the election on August 30th.
• Monitoring and distributing once daily updates.