Hurricane Season 2021 Forecasting Tropical Storm

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The first storm of the 2021 Hurricane Season is being forecasted by the GFS model. The model shows a small tropical Low moving northward along the Mexican coastline near June 19, then blowing up in the western Gulf of Mexico. #weather Over the past 5 years, we have seen explosive tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico with tropical systems. The GFS has landfall near Lake Charles, Louisiana on June 22, then moving northeastward through all of Louisiana and Arkansas. Please remember that the GFS is notorious to over-forecast the development of tropical systems. The part that bothers us is the ECMWF model, which only goes out 10 days, agrees with the GFS up to June 19, then the ECMWF model stops. It will be interesting to see what the models show over the next few days. “Not trying to scare people, but everyone needs time to prepare if this scenario is true.” says Rocco Calaci, Chief Meteorologist. During 2020, the Atlantic Ocean’s hurricane season broke records with a total of 30 named storms; 12 making landfall, 13 becoming hurricanes, and 6 categorized as major hurricanes. Most recent predictions for this year indicate another season with an above-average number of significant weather events, including 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 category-3 or higher hurricanes. “ENSO-neutral and La Nina support the conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Due to the increased number of potentially catastrophic weather events anticipated this year, Strategic Response Partners, the industry-leading disaster planning, response, and recovery firm, strongly urges professionals who maintain facilities and businesses to prepare.


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